Tesla Investment Plan 2025-2028
A comprehensive, cycle-aligned investment framework targeting optimal entry points through presidential cycles, Fed policy shifts, and Tesla-specific catalysts. Built for limited capital requiring maximum upside with managed risk.
Current Market Position
| Firm | Target | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Wedbush (Bull) | $650 | $2T mkt cap if robotaxi succeeds |
| Consensus High | $528 | AI + Autonomous premium |
| Consensus Mean | $379-399 | Current business + optionality |
| Consensus Low | $120 | Auto-only valuation |
Cycle Analysis
Midterm years (Year 2) historically produce the deepest intra-year corrections, creating prime accumulation opportunities.
| Metric | Average | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Drawdown | -18% | Expect Tesla -25% to -40% |
| Post-Midterm 12mo Return | +16.3% | Strong recovery follows |
| Last Negative Post-Midterm | 1939 | 86 years ago |
| Event | Date | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| QT Ended | Dec 1, 2025 | Bullish |
| Global Liquidity | $108.4T ATH | Bullish |
| M2 Growth | +3-4%/yr | Supportive |
Hurts competitors more than Tesla. Tesla achieves 75-80% domestic content; GM has 48% import rate.
Advantages Tesla's domestic production. Foreign EV competitors face significant cost increases.
DOGE reducing NHTSA automation safety staff. FSD/robotaxi approval timeline likely compressed.
Major Catalysts 2025-2028
"Could represent 80% of Tesla's future value"
Labor automation market if Optimus achieves capability parity
Houston Megafactory: $200M investment adding 50 GWh/year capacity by H2 2026. Energy now represents ~25% of revenue with potential to become primary profit driver.
| Vehicle | Timeline | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Model Y "Juniper" | 2025 ✓ | Refreshed design launched |
| Affordable Models | H1 2025 | Announcement expected |
| Cybercab | April 2026 | $30,000, no steering wheel |
| Next-Gen Platform | 2026-2027 | 50% cost reduction target |
Staged Entry Strategy
Phase 1
Dec 2025 - Feb 2026
Deploy initial position at current levels ($450-475). Capitalize on IV Rank 4% for LEAP purchases.
Phase 2
Q2-Q3 2026 (Midterm)
Target $380-430 zone during midterm weakness. Historical corrections average 18%.
Phase 3
October 2026
"Bottom Picker's Paradise" - Deploy final capital at cycle low. Target $340-380.
| Component | Allocation | Amount ($80K) |
|---|---|---|
| Diversified Core (SPY/QQQ) | 50% | $40,000 |
| Tesla Stock | 15-20% | $12,000-16,000 |
| Tesla LEAPs | 5-10% | $4,000-8,000 |
| Bonds/Cash Reserve | 20-25% | $16,000-20,000 |
Scenario Analysis
- Robotaxi scales nationally with 80% gross margins
- FSD licensed to major OEM
- Optimus reaches 100K+ unit production
- Energy hits $25B+ revenue
- Market cap reaches $2T+
- Robotaxi expands to 10+ cities
- FSD improves but needs supervision
- Optimus in pilot/early commercial
- Auto business stabilizes
- Energy continues 30%+ growth
- Robotaxi faces regulatory delays
- Competition erodes EV share (BYD)
- Recession hits discretionary spending
- Musk distraction intensifies
- Multiple compression
Position Size Calculator
LEAP Options Strategy
Tesla's current IV Rank of 4% means options are cheaper than 96% of the past year. This is the ideal environment for LEAP purchases.
| Expiration | Strike | Delta | Purpose | Est. Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $420 | ~0.70 | Core stock replacement | $100-110/share |
| Jan 2028 | $450 | ~0.65 | Long-term core position | $120-130/share |
| Jan 2028 | $550 | ~0.45 | Upside capture (smaller position) | $70-80/share |
- Target 0.60-0.80 delta (ITM or near-ATM) for best risk/reward
- Higher delta = more stock-like behavior, better probability of profit
- Avoid deep OTM strikes despite higher leverage—total loss probability too high
- For capital preservation, ITM LEAPs act like leveraged stock with defined risk
- Roll positions when 6-12 months remain to avoid theta acceleration
- Roll "up and out" (higher strike, later expiration) to capture gains
- Hold at least 366 days before rolling for LTCG treatment
- Avoid initiating positions within 2 weeks of earnings (IV crush risk)
3-Year Tactical Calendar
October: Target cycle bottom for final accumulation.
Key dates: Cybercab production (April), Houston Megafactory (H2).
Hold full position. Take partial profits (25-30%) on 50%+ gains.
Key dates: AI5 chip deployment (mid-year), Optimus scaling.
Q3-Q4: Election volatility creates opportunity.
Reduce to core position (50% of peak allocation), lock in Year 3 gains.
Implementation Checklist
- Establish emergency reserve (3-6 months expenses) OUTSIDE investment capital
- Open options-approved brokerage account if not available
- Calculate exact dollar amounts for each allocation bucket
- Purchase initial stock position ($5,000-8,000)
- Purchase 1 Jan 2028 LEAP (0.65-0.70 delta)
- Set price alerts for support levels ($450, $430, $400, $380)
- Review position vs. allocation limits
- Monitor VIX, 10-year yield, consumer confidence
- Check LEAP theta—roll when 6 months remain
- Reassess thesis after each earnings report
| Consumer Expectations Index | Below 80 = recession signal |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | Above 4.5% = TSLA pressure |
| ISM Services PMI | Below 50 = recession signal |
| VIX | Above 30 = entry opportunity |