Six converging catalysts drove the worst session of 2026. The S&P 500 has gone negative for the year. Amazon's after-hours bomb will dominate tomorrow's open.
| Asset | Level | Move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~$4,815/oz | −4.6% | Liquidation selling |
| WTI Crude | ~$63.50 | −2.0% | Demand concerns |
| US 10Y Yield | ~4.28% | ↓ | Flight to safety |
| US 30Y Yield | ~4.86% | −6bps | Duration bid |
| US Dollar (DXY) | ~97.6 | ▲ Strengthened | Safe haven |
| Kospi (Korea) | — | −3.86% | Samsung −5.8%, SK Hynix −6.4% |
| Nikkei | — | −0.88% | Moderate follow-through |
| Europe (Stoxx 600) | — | +0.1% | Relatively insulated |
Revenue beat. AWS beat. But the $200 billion capex guidance and Q1 operating income below consensus sent shares spiraling. Combined with Alphabet's $175–185B guidance, hyperscaler AI spending now exceeds $500 billion with no clear return timeline. This will dominate tomorrow's open.
Wild card: Includes annual benchmark revision to payrolls — could significantly rewrite recent history. This is a binary event:
Preliminary February reading. Watch for inflation expectations shift post-tariffs.
Philip Morris, Biogen, Cboe, Carlyle, Centene, AutoNation and more reporting before the bell.
Vice Chair Jefferson and Gov. Cook both scheduled in February. Timing TBC.
These will reset at 8:30 AM with the jobs number
The bull case isn't dead — strategists still have constructive year-end targets (Oppenheimer: 8,100, BofA: 7,100, Goldman expects 2.8% global growth). But leadership is rotating out of mega-cap tech and AI names.
The market is repricing whether $500B+ in combined hyperscaler capex will generate returns. Small-caps and value sectors — energy, healthcare, industrials — are where the rotation is flowing.