14 years of data reveals a time-dependent pattern in AAPL's largest-in-history buyback program. The weakness is front-loaded—and the trade has flipped.
Apple operates the largest buyback program in corporate history, creating predictable supply/demand dynamics.
Approximately $20-25B per quarter, accounting for >10% of all S&P 500 buybacks
5 weeks before earnings when Apple cannot repurchase shares (~25 trading days)
Maximum daily buyback under Rule 10b-18: ~10.5M shares (~$2.7B)
Weakness concentrates in early blackout. The trade REVERSES in the final week.
January shows the most consistent underperformance—but the current cycle has already exceeded historical weakness.
Underperformance is concentrated when AAPL enters blackout already weak.
| Year | Earnings | AAPL Return | SPY Return | Excess Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Jan 29 | -5.56% | +0.28% | -5.84% | ● IN PROGRESS |
| 2025 | Jan 30 | -8.89% | +0.08% | -8.97% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2024 | Feb 01 | -3.99% | +3.70% | -7.70% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2023 | Feb 02 | +19.20% | +7.54% | +11.66% | OUTPERFORM |
| 2022 | Jan 27 | -3.38% | -6.09% | +2.71% | OUTPERFORM |
| 2021 | Jan 27 | +0.76% | +0.68% | +0.08% | FLAT |
| 2020 | Jan 28 | +13.93% | +2.01% | +11.92% | OUTPERFORM |
| 2019 | Jan 29 | +5.90% | +9.65% | -3.75% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2018 | Feb 01 | -6.18% | +2.83% | -9.01% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2017 | Jan 31 | +9.61% | +0.66% | +8.95% | OUTPERFORM |
| 2016 | Jan 26 | -12.25% | -7.07% | -5.18% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2015 | Jan 27 | +5.65% | -2.77% | +8.42% | OUTPERFORM |
| 2014 | Jan 27 | -12.16% | -2.84% | -9.33% | UNDERPERFORM |
| 2013 | Jan 23 | -16.42% | +4.87% | -21.29% | UNDERPERFORM |
Performance after January earnings when buybacks resume—15 days is the optimal holding period.
| Window | Avg Excess Return | Win Rate | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Day | +0.80% | 53.8% | Too short |
| 5-Day | +0.79% | 61.5% | Building |
| 10-Day | +1.24% | 69.2% | Good |
| 15-Day ★ | +1.95% | 76.9% | OPTIMAL |
| 20-Day | +1.40% | 69.2% | Fading |
The thesis has inverted. The weakness has occurred—now it's time to position for strength.
The early blackout weakness has already occurred and exceeded historical averages. Late blackout historically shows +1.79% excess return, plus +1.95% in the 15 days post-earnings.
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings miss | Low | High | Use defined-risk options |
| Weak guidance | Medium | High | Historical data includes misses |
| China revenue decline | Medium | Medium | Already reflected in drawdown |
| Broader market selloff | Medium | High | Use pairs trade |
| Pattern failure | Always possible | High | Small position, stop loss |
July shows statistically significant outperformance. January is the weakest month.