The Critical Metric: mNAV
mNAV (Multiple-to-Net-Asset-Value) measures Strategy's enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin holdings. It is the primary lens for evaluating the company's leveraged "HODL" strategy.
- ● > 1.0x (Premium): Market confidence. Strategy can accretively raise capital to buy more BTC.
- ● < 1.0x (Discount): Warning sign. Stock trades below the value of its BTC.
- ● < 0.9x (Danger Zone): Liquidity constraints. Dilution becomes toxic, debt markets tighten.
Current Status: 0.95x (Down from 1.11x mid-2025 highs)
Current Risk Level
Zone: Mild Distress (Monitoring)
The "Forced Sale" Kill Switch
For the first time, Strategy's CEO has outlined conditions for a forced BTC sale. It is not triggered by debt covenants, but by a specific combination of valuation and market access failure. Use the simulator below to test the conditions.
mNAV < 1.0x
Currently at 0.95x. The stock is trading at a discount to its assets.
Capital Market Access
Can Strategy raise cash via Equity or Debt?
SAFE: NO SALE
Strategy can use cash reserves or raise capital to cover obligations. HODL continues.
Scenario Simulator
Explore the potential impact of deteriorating conditions on BTC price and Strategy's stability.
Select Scenario
Key Drivers
- • Cash Buffer: $1.44B (Stable)
- • Debt Covenants: None
- • Investor Sentiment: Cautious
Market Impact Projection
The Balance Sheet Fortress
Why a collapse isn't imminent. Even with BTC at $25K, assets cover debt 2x. No debt matures until Dec 2025.