Hanukkah Week 2025

Critical Week Events — Not a Normal Holiday Week

This highlights two major market-moving events. Thursday Dec 18: CPI Release (inflation data, high volatility expected) and Friday Dec 19: Quad Witching (simultaneous expiration of index futures, index options, and stock options). These structural events will likely dominate any seasonal patterns.

Trading Week Overview

✓ Calendar Verified

Hanukkah 2025 runs from sundown December 14 through December 22. The trading week (Dec 15-19) covers nights 2-6 of the eight-day festival. Markets operate normal hours—no early closes until Christmas Eve (Dec 24, 1:00 PM close).

MON 15

TUE 16

WED 17

THU 18

FRI 19

Markets Open 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET

2nd Night 🕯️🕯️

3rd Night 🕯️🕯️🕯️

4th Night 🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️

CPI 5th Night 🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️

4X WITCH 6th Night Shabbat

Tue: Jobs Report Wed: Retail Sales Thu: CPI Release ⚠️ Fri: Quad Witching ⚠️

Claim Verification

Here's what the sourced and verified research actually shows:

✓

0.18% Avg Weekly Return

Mathematically consistent with ~10% annual S&P 500 returns

✗

"Hanukkah Effect" +0.45%

No academic documentation exists. Term not found in financial literature.

✗

Santa Claus Rally Overlap

Rally runs Dec 24 – Jan 5. Zero overlap with this week.

December Seasonality +0.38%

Plausible range (0.33-0.58%), but not specific to Hanukkah

Santa Claus Rally

✗ No Overlap

The Santa Claus Rally has a precise definition (Yale Hirsch, 1972): the last 5 trading days of December + first 2 trading days of January.

Hanukkah Week Dec 15-19 Gap Santa Claus Rally Dec 24 – Jan 5

1.3% Avg 7-Day Return

79% Win Rate (1950-2023)

Friday Dec 19: Quad Witching

HIGH IMPACT

Quad Witching is the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts.

Expiring

Stock Index Futures

Expiring

Stock Index Options

Expiring

Single Stock Options

Expiring

Single Stock Futures

50-100% Higher Volume Than Normal

3-4 PM ET "Witching Hour" Volatility

-0.38% Historical Avg Bias

December Volume Patterns

✓ Verified

Russell Investments data confirms holiday liquidity drops. Mid-December typically sees 30-55% below-normal volume.

Sector Seasonal Context

⚠ Nuanced

Retail (XRT) peaks earlier (Sept-Nov). XLY is Amazon/Tesla dominated. GLD shows stable December patterns.

What Research Actually Shows

Jewish Holiday Effects (Documented)

Academic research (Yatrakis & Williams, 2010) documents abnormal returns during the Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur period (~1% above average). Separate research found daily returns 32x greater than typical days across nine Jewish holidays.

Note: This research covers High Holidays, not Hanukkah specifically.

Pre-Holiday Effect (Documented)

QuantPedia research confirms a pre-holiday return effect: days before market holidays often deliver returns 10x larger than average days. Lower liquidity means modest buying pressure moves markets more easily.

Relevant for Dec 24 (Christmas Eve early close), not this week.

Actionable Summary

Mon-Wed: Normal Trading

Jobs data Tuesday, Retail Sales Wednesday. Standard December conditions with slightly reduced institutional participation.

Thursday: CPI Day

Highest volatility risk of the week. Inflation data drives Fed expectations. Consider reduced position sizes or hedges.

Friday: Quad Witching

Expect 50-100% higher volume and erratic price action, especially 3-4 PM. Historical slight negative bias. Not a day for tight stops.

Bottom Line: Ignore the "Hanukkah Effect" narrative—it's not supported by research. This week's character will be defined by CPI volatility Thursday and Quad Witching chaos Friday, not holiday seasonality. The Santa Claus Rally doesn't start until December 24. Trade the week for what it is: a data-heavy, derivatives-heavy final push before the real holiday lull begins.